Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[InkedElkSlayer]

Apologize for the long post. But hell, I’m day drinking my favorite beer on Christmas, watching my sexy wife make my favorite meal that my grandma taught her how to make 25 years ago… it’s a good day.

If any of you guys figure out how to draw a coveted mule deer tag every year, PM me. Have a good Christmas.

 

[Idaho_Potato]

Change companies. Learn new skills to increase your earning power. Start a side hustle. Tons of people consistently increase their income by way more than 10% annually year after year but they actively work to do so.

Never in history has it been easier to radically change your income than today. Learning new skills and finding opportunities is easier than it ever has been. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t take work, planning, and goal setting however.


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Just go ahead and post the link to your course.

 

[Marshfly]

Just go ahead and post the link to your course.

Love it. That’s another option too. You could build a course.

But seriously there’s a million ways to make money on the side. Find one that fits your life and do it.


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[jpmulk]

Love it. That’s another option too. You could build a course.

But seriously there’s a million ways to make money on the side. Find one that fits your life and do it.


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I like what you’re saying if someone is in need of cash. There is definitely a time and place. But, I’ll throw an opposing thought out there. Maybe more people need to learn to live with less, inside their means. Money isn’t everything. Chasing the American dream ruins many a family. My wife and I have decided time as a fam is more important than more money. We will never be rich and I wont going on big expensive out of state hunts. But we arent in debt, we are slowly adding to our savings, and we stay inside our means. We operate on a single income so we can raise our own kids. Most people I know for a fact are not in a position to do that. We are thankful. as the ol controversial but often correct Dave Ramsey says, money is %80 percent behavior. It’s only %20 numbers.

 

[ozyclint]

^this

So if you work a handful of side hustles, which most people can, then where do you get the time to go hunting, fishing, family etc? Side hustles are the time when you're not working your bread and butter.

 

[Marshfly]

I like what you’re saying if someone is in need of cash. There is definitely a time and place. But, I’ll throw an opposing thought out there. Maybe more people need to learn to live with less, inside their means. Money isn’t everything. Chasing the American dream ruins many a family. My wife and I have decided time as a fam is more important than more money. We will never be rich and I wont going on big expensive out of state hunts. But we arent in debt, we are slowly adding to our savings, and we stay inside our means. We operate on a single income so we can raise our own kids. Most people I know for a fact are not in a position to do that. We are thankful. as the ol controversial but often correct Dave Ramsey says, money is %80 percent behavior. It’s only %20 numbers.

I totally agree. Living within your means is important no matter the income. WELL within your means. It sounds like you are doing exactly what I said above about making your family your responsibility. Great job.


Things still get more expensive though. That’s just how the economy works. You HAVE to increase income over time to keep the same lifestyle. Simply cutting back is not going to do it.

 

[mt terry d]

Are you not managing your money so it grows and the income you can take from it grows as well? People should be. I know quite a few retired people that do just that. Leaving a job does not in any way absolve you of the RESPONSIBILITY to manage your money well.

I managed my money just fine......without money managers, 401Ks, retirement funds, CDs, wall street.

I've been very fortunate, also. Others not so much.

Those are the ones that take it in the shorts when it's inflation time.

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

Montana draw statistics are out for this year. ~1500 less applicants than 2023 and 2022. Odds actually improved.

I might have called it a bit early in my OP but I think some of the meateater/Rogan/Instagram crowd is finally moving on. It’s not as hip as it was a few years ago, and some of the people who did it for the past few years during Covid have realized it’s mostly hard work with a low success rate.

It will be interesting to see how demand is in other western states. With Colorado changing their NR tag allocation and WY increasing special tag prices I would’ve guessed we would’ve seen more applicants in Montana this year, so it’s a good sign.

 

[CorbLand]

I would say that one thing you are definently calling early is assuming the meateater/rogan/instgram crowd is quitting because of a .5% decrease in apps between two years.

Applications are like the stock market, they are always fluctuating but the overall trend is up.

The thing I would be interested in seeing is how many just purchased points?

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

I would say that one thing you are definently calling early is assuming the meateater/rogan/instgram crowd is quitting because of a .5% decrease in apps between two years.

Applications are like the stock market, they are always fluctuating but the overall trend is up.

The thing I would be interested in seeing is how many just purchased points?

A) It’s roughly a 5% decrease in apps after things had been steadily increasing the last few years, then topped out the last two years at 31k. Does it mean we’re gonna see leftover tags again next year? Probably not. But it’s not insignificant either. 2025 will tell the story if it is a trend or a one off.

That’s the other thing, for preference points, Montana makes you apply every year or lose points now. That was the biggest reason odds improved IMO.

Bonus points are a different story.

Anecdotally I’ve had several friends go on one or two hunts the past few years that have suddenly lost interest.

 

[Ucsdryder]

I would say that one thing you are definently calling early is assuming the meateater/rogan/instgram crowd is quitting because of a .5% decrease in apps between two years.

Applications are like the stock market, they are always fluctuating but the overall trend is up.

The thing I would be interested in seeing is how many just purchased points?

Montana has a wonky system too with the way they’re doing their preference points. I’d be curious to see New Mexico. Seems like half the people that drew are newer!

 

[PablitoPescador]

As much as I love the decorations that come from hunting, I’m hopeful that people will start moving in the direction of seeing hunting as a source of high quality food rather than an ego trip. When that shift happens, people are going to do less hunting out west and more hunting close to home. I know access can be tough out east, but it seems like a guy should be able to get permission to blast a couple does every year at the very least. They’re castrating bucks in NY for cripes sake!

 

[hunterjmj]

View attachment 701973

Montana draw statistics are out for this year. ~1500 less applicants than 2023 and 2022. Odds actually improved.

I might have called it a bit early in my OP but I think some of the meateater/Rogan/Instagram crowd is finally moving on. It’s not as hip as it was a few years ago, and some of the people who did it for the past few years during Covid have realized it’s mostly hard work with a low success rate.

It will be interesting to see how demand is in other western states. With Colorado changing their NR tag allocation and WY increasing special tag prices I would’ve guessed we would’ve seen more applicants in Montana this year, so it’s a good sign.

I'm hoping the IG Bros are loosing interest a bit. With mule deer does not on the table anymore for many units it'll be tough for guys to come home with something to show for the money they forked out. We'll see.

 

[CorbLand]

A) It’s roughly a 5% decrease in apps after things had been steadily increasing the last few years, then topped out the last two years at 31k. Does it mean we’re gonna see leftover tags again next year? Probably not. But it’s not insignificant either. 2025 will tell the story if it is a trend or a one off.

That’s the other thing, for preference points, Montana makes you apply every year or lose points now. That was the biggest reason odds improved IMO.

Bonus points are a different story.

Anecdotally I’ve had several friends go on one or two hunts the past few years that have suddenly lost interest.

Good catch. Did that math wrong in my head and moved the decimal one too far.

Time will tell but I don’t think it’s safe to say or even hint that this is the start of the pop. A couple more years of similar results and I will agree with you.

 

[Traveler]

CO elk hunter numbers below. This is not applications, but CO had/has so much OTC it is still interesting.

Many SW CO archery units went draw in 2020, which accounts for some of the decline. But there were still archery OTC units that hunters could have moved to and I don’t think they did in large numbers based on these stats. And still two OTC rifle seasons.

Elk hunting is hard. People may continue banking points for “a good unit”, where they “are likely to kill”. That won’t last. It is just hard on public land and I think more draws, effort, economy and a Jonny come lately trend favors overall numbers declining in the future.

Year	Elk All	Elk Rifle	Elk ML	Elk Archery
2017	223,269	163,781	11,696	47,727
2018	224,385	162,031	11,534	50,750
2019	219,295	156,509	11,254	51,485
2020	212,667	148,615	10,574	53,426
2021	215,305	150,609	10,680	54,016
2022	206,496	144,411	10,630	51,455
2023	186,028	125,510	10,385	50,133

 

[Sccritterkiller]

I don't think the economy has hit bottom yet...they aren't cutting rates anytime soon...folks living beyond their means with adjustable rate loans are taking in the pants right now...add in a little inflation...car insurance inflation is thru the roof...equals less money for tags/hunts.

 

[CMF]

Montana has a wonky system too with the way they’re doing their preference points.

Agree, that fact is probably adding to the decline.
We had a great time in MT in 2021, but haven't been back cause it's harder to plan with there 60% draw at 0 point and 0% draw at 1 point. I don't want to waste money buying pp just to guarantee draw at 3pts. CO is easier to plan, cheaper tags and closer drive.
As much as I hate pp systems it's not as bad of a system if you can draw every couple years(as compared to WY sheep) Just add the 0pt tags to the total and reduce the pp cost and I'd jump back in.

 

[HighPing_]

Im not sure we can ever see a full burst at this point, but shrinking is pretty likely once the new wears off for all the people that got into it just because they were cooped up during COVID.

 

[CO Mountain Man]

View attachment 701973

Montana draw statistics are out for this year. ~1500 less applicants than 2023 and 2022. Odds actually improved.

I might have called it a bit early in my OP but I think some of the meateater/Rogan/Instagram crowd is finally moving on. It’s not as hip as it was a few years ago, and some of the people who did it for the past few years during Covid have realized it’s mostly hard work with a low success rate.

It will be interesting to see how demand is in other western states. With Colorado changing their NR tag allocation and WY increasing special tag prices I would’ve guessed we would’ve seen more applicants in Montana this year, so it’s a good sign.

I don’t think the 2024 statistics can be used to further your argument. There are still nearly double the total applicants compared to the available NR tags. There is still a long way to go before MT would be undersubscribed, and then if it did get to that point you would have people jump back off the sidelines to get back into the game. Plus, as other states like CO start to remove their OTC options, MT’s preference point predictably will seem all the more attractive.

To be clear, I’d love for you to be correct, but I don’t see the tide turning to a meaningful degree any time soon barring a major recession.

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

I don’t think the 2024 statistics can be used to further your argument. There are still nearly double the total applicants compared to the available NR tags. There is still a long way to go before MT would be undersubscribed, and then if it did get to that point you would have people jump back off the sidelines to get back into the game. Plus, as other states like CO start to remove their OTC options, MT’s preference point predictably will seem all the more attractive.

To be clear, I’d love for you to be correct, but I don’t see the tide turning to a meaningful degree any time soon barring a major recession.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think we’re ever going back to MT tags not selling out.

But you combine this years MT statistics with the Colorado statistics posted above, and the idea that demand is just going to continue to explode and it's all doom and gloom from a tag availability standpoint starts to lose credibility.

Undoubtedly there was an explosion in demand, particularly for nonresident draw tags in the ~2014/2015 timeframe. It was the perfect storm of a roaring economy, internet information availability, Newberg, Meateater, Rogan, social media, OnX, Covid, etc etc. Some of that isn’t going back into Pandora’s box obviously, but I think there are some clear signs that the demand has slowed and will normalize.

Do states like CO and WY need to reform their point system to address point creep? Absolutely. But point creep isn’t necessarily due to just demand, it’s due to the fact people can keep buying points without ever applying. That screws the people that actually want to hunt.

But I’m no longer worried about being able to hunt elk every year as a nonresident, at least in the next decade or so until I retire.