I appreciate that answer and insight. I take it you are long in PTON
Yes, i own a couple thousand shares but I’m in between $7.88 and $8.04.
Please dont take that as a recommendation to buy. I am just making educated guesses and now playing with house money. Its highly evolving. They have made many important changes…but There is no way to know if I’m right about increasing new subscribers or them keeping their excellent retention rate.
we will find out tomorrow.
I think its important to understand- every investment is a gamble….seriously. we are always at the mercy of; the big picture stuff like the market itself, world issues, politics…and then the company itself. Heck, look at Crate and Barrel…somewhat predictable with all of those expensive storefronts…but its going down. The more you know about markets and the Co or sector- that lessens the risk.
If anyone tells you they have the golden touch- its hogwash. I have been watching BX for 2 yrs. Bought below $80 recently…then they had the capital issue with their RE fund- I dumped it at a small profit…but now left $13,000 on the table < face palm> a screwup…but I’m ok with it.
Simply, I didn’t feel I understood their business enough….and I just plain am not going to ride anything down losing money. So I get whipsawed a fair amount…..and I don’t capitalize on some huge run ups.
Some would disagree….but I use going in and out to control my risk. I trade more in non tax accts. I’ve only been 90%in the market since mid Dec…before that I was up to 60% in cash. If Im averaging 20%+ a year…I’m happy.
I applaud the traders here that do their homework.
The group think tells you that buy and hold….or passive investing is the best strategy. Sorry- but thats just lazy and excuse. Citadel did 38% last year…and 21% the year before- and they are managing the Titanic.
I say if you are down for the year with your current financial planner…its time to rethink their pitch of “stay the course”. They use past performance to bolster their argument….take a look at the exact same market setup we have now; early 1970’s and see how that panned out for passive investors back then. IME, hope and banking on past performance is a poor strategy. Ask yourself; What is going to outperform for the next 1-3 years?
I think CNQ and the Vanguard oil etf which i went into pretty big a month ago will continue to do well…( I hate to give recommendations- call it an example to study) but its strongly tied to the price of oil so if oil demand tanks before summer….cut it loose…and then buy it back for the summer season.
Sorry for the ramble….But the group think is a pet peeve of mine…when you think about it, its the reason behind a lot of the bad shit in the world right now.