Official Montana 2024 Draw Thread

[hoff1ck]

Called it!

2 point odds improved from slightly this year. As f$cked up as MT FWP is, their preference points system is the best for the end user. Turns out when you make people apply every year or lose their points, the system works as intended. Colorado and Wyoming should be paying attention, but then again they will never let that cash cow Ponzi scheme die.

Additionally, approximately 1500 less applicants this year, an indication that the western hunting bubble is bursting slightly, which is good. Turns out elk hunting is hard, time consuming, and not exactly what it looks like on instagram.

With only around 850 2 point holders that didn’t draw, that means we shouldn’t see nearly as many 3 point holders going into the draw in 2025 as we have seen the past 2 years. 2 point draw odds will likely improve again next year.

It’s not all doom and gloom!

Outfitted clients can also buy 2 preference points, so there could be a fair amount sitting on 1 that can apply with 3 next year as well.

 

[GunnarS]

I’d be interested to see how many of those applicants are now residents.


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Is there info out there on number of resident tags given out every year?

 

[eltx]

Is there info out there on number of resident tags given out every year?

For tags probably not till the season is over but the permit details are available.

https://myfwp.mt.gov/fwpPub/drawingStatistics

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

Outfitted clients can also buy 2 preference points, so there could be a fair amount sitting on 1 that can apply with 3 next year as well.

True. If an outfitted client can buy an off season PP then buy two during application that might happen, but the entire point of the two points for outfitted applicants was so they could draw every year. If they drew the year prior, they shouldn’t have 3 the next year.

I still bet we are a drop in 3 point applicants next year.

 

[Roughwater]

True. If an outfitted client can buy an off season PP then buy two during application that might happen, but the entire point of the two points for outfitted applicants was so they could draw every year. If they drew the year prior, they shouldn’t have 3 the next year.

I still bet we are a drop in 3 point applicants next year.

If you are not a shoe in to draw next year with 3 points something terriable is wrong with the system.
I expect to to have 2 points next year since I didn't draw this year but feel like my odds are still above 50% next year to draw so not bad odds for sure. I will try to get on a alternate list this year if possible. I have one other state I can go to that has unlimited tags but not sure I will use that option though I know the area pretty well. I just like Montana better than any other state I have hunted in spite of the cost and chances of drawing.






2

 

[hoff1ck]

True. If an outfitted client can buy an off season PP then buy two during application that might happen, but the entire point of the two points for outfitted applicants was so they could draw every year. If they drew the year prior, they shouldn’t have 3 the next year.

I still bet we are a drop in 3 point applicants next year.

That’s definitely true for clients that are going annually. I don’t follow outfitted stuff so I have no clue if those guys going every year are the majority of the clientele vs those who may go every few and wouldn’t be restricted to only 2 points. More so pointing out that I don’t think you can bank on the 3 point pool only going up so much solely based on the 2 point pool that didn’t draw the year prior. Especially hard without knowing how many sat on the sidelines this year with a point but will go into the draw next year with two, or those that were applying in the 0 point pool but see the shrinking odds and change strategy that way.

I’m not saying I’m not optimistic that we might see some continued change in a positive direction, just too many variables to accurately predict.