Point Creep, Draw Strategies

[Donjuan]

Do you think point creep will ever slow down in states like Utah and Arizona, or are there more and more people applying every year?

I just got into elk hunting and am wondering if it is even worth the time, even in states like Wyoming where I am behind the 8ball.

I will probably get flamed for being lazy, but does anywhere like GoHunt or Eastman's have a concise table of elk draw requirements, fees, and dates as well as requirements to buy a point. I am mostly interested in comparing different state's costs for getting a point.

For example, I believe Wyoming requires only $50, but Nevada you must buy a nonrefundable $150 hunting license to get your point.

I am trying to determine if chasing points is worth it to get into a great unit that's once in a lifetime, or just save up and buy a landowner tag in a place like NM.

I wouldn't mind hearing what your draw strategy is or if you say efffff it and just go OTC, which in colorado sounds like an overrun mess

 

[Miflatlander91]

Gohunt does give a lot of info you are looking for free 30 days right now you can check it out


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[deerkiller]

Do you think point creep will ever slow down in states like Utah and Arizona, or are there more and more people applying every year?

I just got into elk hunting and am wondering if it is even worth the time, even in states like Wyoming where I am behind the 8ball.

I will probably get flamed for being lazy, but does anywhere like GoHunt or Eastman's have a concise table of elk draw requirements, fees, and dates as well as requirements to buy a point. I am mostly interested in comparing different state's costs for getting a point.

For example, I believe Wyoming requires only $50, but Nevada you must buy a nonrefundable $150 hunting license to get your point.

I am trying to determine if chasing points is worth it to get into a great unit that's once in a lifetime, or just save up and buy a landowner tag in a place like NM.

I wouldn't mind hearing what your draw strategy is or if you say efffff it and just go OTC, which in colorado sounds like an overrun mess

if you start trying to second guess and figuring out "secrets of the draw" rather than just put in for tags or buy points and then GO HUNT WHERE YOU CAN you'll be frustrated from the get-go - this "short cut" crap is what has screwed everything up at THIS point ! (well, that and too many people) "EVERYBODY" wants a world class bull and buck and "EVERYONE" wants a "hunt of a lifetime" …… blah blah blah JUST HUNT ALREADY …..

 

[Donjuan]

if you start trying to second guess and figuring out "secrets of the draw" rather than just put in for tags or buy points and then GO HUNT WHERE YOU CAN you'll be frustrated from the get-go - this "short cut" crap is what has screwed everything up at THIS point ! (well, that and too many people) "EVERYBODY" wants a world class bull and buck and "EVERYONE" wants a "hunt of a lifetime" …… blah blah blah JUST HUNT ALREADY …..

I appreciate the honesty!

 

[oake]

My opinion is as long as there are OTC hunts available, then Preference Points are insurance over the long run.

With that said, there are states that I have intentionally avoided due to the likelihood of never catching up

 

[YZF_88]

Very little chance to catch up on mid-high tier units in states like WY & UT. While WY offers a decent number of tags, the point creep for many units (at least the two I've been looking at) is very close to 1:1. Very frustrating to be 1 or 2 points behind for 5 years. UT just doesn't give out enough tags to make much of a difference. Unfortunately, a few hundred tags are scammed out of the public draw for the benefit of well connected private companies via auctions and expos. States like CO move the goalpost with respect to LE tags (and fronting the money) screwing the vested.

If I could go back 11 years, I'd tell myself to forget any LE opportunities and save the money. Focus on learning an OTC area. In the interest of disclosure, between my kid and I we've drawn 4 good LE tags since 2012 between ID and UT. To draw those tags, we beat 1.8%, 1.2%, 4%, & 7% odds in the random pool! Tagged out on decent bulls. They were fun hunts due to less hunting pressure.

With that said, the smaller OTC deer and elk I tagged with a bow since 2012 are even more rewarding. My kid was equally as excited to get her OTC deer and LE elk. It's all about perspective.

 

[wapitibob]

"I am trying to determine if chasing points is worth it to get into a great unit that's once in a lifetime, or just save up and buy a landowner tag in a place like NM."

If this is what you're really after, you're better off with the LO tag.

 

[cnelk]

Even GoHunt's crystal ball cant determine who or when applicants will put in for what.

In fact, GoHunt's data is 1 year old

 

[Whip]

I really think it is getting worse. Hate to be so pesimistic, but I started building points years ago. I have cashed some of them in and enjoyed some good hunting. But this year I applied for 3 different hunts that I would have drawn last year with the points I had then. This year point creep kicked in and I didn’t draw any of those tags. More and more guys just like me have been applying for points only for years. Now states have increased the cost of buying points, require a licence in order to gain a point, etc. As it has gotten more expensive to play the game we are all now actually trying to pull tags and in the case of the units I applied for point creep has actually gone up by MORE than 1 point per year. I don’t see that trend anytime soon.
I used to be an advocate of buying as many points for as many species as you could afford. I’m not so sure that is a good strategy anymore.

 

[YZF_88]

Whip has a good point about people now seeing how much states are jacking up the price just to buy points as another contributing factor in point creep

 

[deerkiller]

EVERY dept in virtually EVERY state is and has been crying the blues about no budgetary funds, Fish & Wildlife is usually one of the earliest casualties, ODFW (and not without "help" from the Army Corps of Engineers) is lock step on pace -
Quite a while back I read about and realized the truth that anti hunters found they could gain points and congest the entire hunting system coast to coast for a lot less $$ than it had been costing them to battle in courts and such, and in most cases do it silently while snickering in the background - Oregon & Washington are pretty good examples of this and now, with the flood of people moving here, even Democrats like to hunt and fish (some of them anyway) making it even more congested - It's like smog, it's gonna just get worse and "you can run but you cannot hide" from it - I suppose one could take up golf or bowling …...
All kidding aside, it's simply a fact of our times - I lost count of how many NE Oregon "natives" have told me these are "the good old days for elk", I think that is very true BUT as cyclic trends do, these elk days will trend down in some capacity as well from over population, we have CWD, hoof rot, and with the climate shift things will change, that is a certainty - Again, in OR / WA with "man's" propensity to expand into the habitat THAT will also exacerbate the problems

 

[Doc Holliday]

Once you buy the license

My opinion is as long as there are OTC hunts available, then Preference Points are insurance over the long run.

With that said, there are states that I have intentionally avoided due to the likelihood of never catching up

Yep. And this whole front $2K or $3K to be refunded if you don't draw was PURE GENIUS. They are basically getting an interest free loan for 2 - 3 months! Give me double digit (maybe even triple digit) millions of dollars for 2 - 3 months and I will make plenty off of it, and I am no Warren Buffett!!

 

[Trial153]

My strategy is pretty much across the board in every state for everything except the thee west cost states. Get the best tags I can when I can, fill in OTC and in Canada so I can line up 3-5 bow hunts a year every year.

 

[jmcd22]

It will do nothing but get worse in my opinion. Social media, decreasing tags, introduction and hunting bans on predators are all contributing factors in my book.

I heard Colorado was tossing around the idea of doing away with OTC hunts which would force a ton of people into the points game. How true that is, I have no idea...pure speculation on my part. I haven't researched it at all to see what exactly they were talking about but if Colorado does that, Idaho won't be too far behind them. The more and more OTC hunts that move to a draw, the worse the point creep will get. The more people move out West or travel out here to hunt, the worse it will get. I just don't see where it will get any better unfortunately.

 

[Doc Holliday]

I heard Colorado was tossing around the idea of doing away with OTC hunts which would force a ton of people into the points game. How true that is, I have no idea...pure speculation on my part. I haven't researched it at all to see what exactly they were talking about but if Colorado does that, Idaho won't be too far behind them. The more and more OTC hunts that move to a draw, the worse the point creep will get. The more people move out West or travel out here to hunt, the worse it will get. I just don't see where it will get any better unfortunately.

How do you figure doing away with OTC, point creep would get worse?

The way I understand it is people hoard points and hunt OTC, so points go up every year.

If they do away with OTC, it will help/reduce point creep because people won't be able to hoard their points anymore. They will have to burn them if they want to hunt. Right?

If I am confused, please explain it to me so I can understand



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[Wapiti1]

Doc, if you could only apply in that one state and had to hunt there, then it would help with point creep. However, the system would also have to require no second choice permits where you get a tag and keep your points. It would have to eat the points for any tag you draw.

Mule deer in CO is a good example. There are only draw hunts, and most units offer a quality hunt with several seasons. So, point creep is at a much lower level than chasing a unit 1 or 2 elk tag. i.e. the applicants are spread out over more tags. But, you get to draw on a second choice and keep your points, or you can buy a leftover and keep your points. Or, I can hunt elsewhere and keep my points. So, there is still point creep on the best units for the best seasons in that unit.

The main issue is number of tags verse number of applicants. Even the mule deer example is hampered by this since the best dates don't offer a lot of tags.

Jeremy

 

[Doc Holliday]

Doc, if you could only apply in that one state and had to hunt there, then it would help with point creep. However, the system would also have to require no second choice permits where you get a tag and keep your points. It would have to eat the points for any tag you draw.

Mule deer in CO is a good example. There are only draw hunts, and most units offer a quality hunt with several seasons. So, point creep is at a much lower level than chasing a unit 1 or 2 elk tag. i.e. the applicants are spread out over more tags. But, you get to draw on a second choice and keep your points, or you can buy a leftover and keep your points. Or, I can hunt elsewhere and keep my points. So, there is still point creep on the best units for the best seasons in that unit.

The main issue is number of tags verse number of applicants. Even the mule deer example is hampered by this since the best dates don't offer a lot of tags.

Jeremy

Yeah, I am thinking when I say do away with OTC that they would make it like you describe above..... if you have any elk tag, you now have zero points in your account. I am by no means cheering for this to happen.....I know without OTC tags many people would not be able to hunt, and I wouldn't wish that on anybody. But I don't see any other way to combat point creep.

It would cause more people though, who maybe only hunt Colorado OTC every year and don't buy points in other states, to start buying points in other states where they had not before, so that side effect which could cause point creep in other states, I can understand. Though finances are going to come into play......basically what it would do is make it more of a rich man's sport.....I think that is the major problem.

 

[Whip]

Before jumping in to a new point game do a little research. Many States have data available that break down how many point holders there are in each point catagory. Total the numbers up and you can see exactly how many people will always have more points than you will. Then look at how many NR tags are given out each year and you will now know how many years you can plan on waiting for your own number to come up. For WY moose as an example if you are just starting out the only way you will ever get a tag is to outlive everyone in front of you. More people in front of you will die each year than will draw tags.

 

[5MilesBack]

How do you figure doing away with OTC, point creep would get worse?

The way I understand it is people hoard points and hunt OTC, so points go up every year.

Point creep would get worse because now everybody would be in the points game, and would require points for every elk tag.

If people are truly hoarding points and not drawing and then hunting OTC......they aren't even in the point creep game. Point creep has everything to do with ONLY the people that actually apply for those particular tags. Those collecting points and hunting OTC don't affect the creep at all. If you look at the stats pages there are two people in CO that have something like 32 points for elk. There isn't a tag in the state that takes 32 points right now, yet they continue to get a point every year. Obviously they aren't interested in actually drawing a tag. If they were they'd use them. However, even with 32 points they don't affect creep at all because they essentially aren't even in the draw game.

The only time they'll affect creep is when they actually DO use their points to draw. The only thing affecting creep is too many people putting in for these tags, and/or the CDOW reducing the number of tags. Supply and demand. When you have 100 resident tags for a unit and you have 90 people applying every year........no creep. But when you have those same 100 tags and you have 150 people applying every year now.........you have creep.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Point creep would get worse because now everybody would be in the points game, and would require points for every elk tag.

If people are truly hoarding points and not drawing and then hunting OTC......they aren't even in the point creep game. Point creep has everything to do with ONLY the people that actually apply for those particular tags. Those collecting points and hunting OTC don't affect the creep at all. If you look at the stats pages there are two people in CO that have something like 32 points for elk. There isn't a tag in the state that takes 32 points right now, yet they continue to get a point every year. Obviously they aren't interested in actually drawing a tag. If they were they'd use them. However, even with 32 points they don't affect creep at all because they essentially aren't even in the draw game.

The only time they'll affect creep is when they actually DO use their points to draw. The only thing affecting creep is too many people putting in for these tags, and/or the CDOW reducing the number of tags. Supply and demand. When you have 100 resident tags for a unit and you have 90 people applying every year........no creep. But when you have those same 100 tags and you have 150 people applying every year now.........you have creep.

Ok, that makes sense. Thank you.

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