Montana and this math intensive pref point system for the combo elk tag - Ramblin'

[Scottf270]

The system isn't perfect but it gives a guy with zero points a chance at a general elk tag every year. It gives a guy going with an outfitter a good chance at a general tag within a year or two. It gives a diy guy who buys points a chance at a general tag within 2 to 3 years. Pick which option works for you. ( This is coming from a non resident point of view.)

Having to apply or lose points every year forces guys to be ready to hunt and stops the point creep at a reasonable level. Time will tell. If guys drop out of the draws that's not all bad from my own selfish point of view.

 

[BuckeyeRifleman]

The system isn't perfect but it gives a guy with zero points a chance at a general elk tag every year. It gives a guy going with an outfitter a good chance at a general tag within a year or two. It gives a diy guy who buys points a chance at a general tag within 2 to 3 years. Pick which option works for you. ( This is coming from a non resident point of view.)

Having to apply or lose points every year forces guys to be ready to hunt and stops the point creep at a reasonable level. Time will tell. If guys drop out of the draws that's not all bad from my own selfish point of view.

Of all the points systems, it’s actually the one that works somewhat as intended. It would be be great if the outfitter BS wasn’t there, but I’ll take it over Colorado and Wyoming.

I wouldn’t put money against odds at 2 points actually being stagnant or improving slightly this year due to the “apply or lose your points” rule. This is the first year the effect of that will really be felt IIRC.

 

[Elkoholic87]

View attachment 659901
Of all the points systems, it’s actually the one that works somewhat as intended. It would be be great if the outfitter BS wasn’t there, but I’ll take it over Colorado and Wyoming.

I wouldn’t put money against odds at 2 points actually being stagnant or improving slightly this year due to the “apply or lose your points” rule. This is the first year the effect of that will really be felt IIRC.

Outfitter BS? Can you explain this? Are there advantages to applying with an outfitter in MT?


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[BuckeyeRifleman]

Outfitter BS? Can you explain this? Are there advantages to applying with an outfitter in MT?


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You can buy two points at the time of application if you sign an affidavit stating you are hunting with an outfitter.

 

[Elkoholic87]

You can buy two points at the time of application if you sign an affidavit stating you are hunting with an outfitter.

Gotchya. Thanks for explaining that.


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[Brettkazz]

This is what would be logical, but supposedly you lose your points back to 0 if you don't apply....

You can buy a preference point without applying. Then apply the following year and buy a point during application. So if you start with 0 points in 2023, you buy a point in the fall but don't apply for a tag. Then when 2024 comes, during application you can buy a point and apply with 2 points.

 

[ndbuck09]

yes, I have figured that in...the numbers in 2022 with 0 would theoretically moved up to 2 points in 2023, so any number in the 2023 draw would be increased by 2 but with the limit of a max of 3.

 

[MuleyFever]

What other state has better than 60% draw odds for someone with 0 points?

Colorado

 

[fmyth]

Colorado

What bull elk tag can I draw in CO with 0 points?

 

[MuleyFever]

What bull elk tag can I draw in CO with 0 points?

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/Statistics/Elk/2023ElkDrawnOut.pdf

 

[Roughwater]

The best thing to do here, is just not go hunting in Montana at all. They have really f'd up their draw system in my opinion. You didnt even mention the bonus point BS they have going on as well. I finally just ditched my points and lost the money i had paid.

I totally agree! You all that hate the system ditch your points and go to any other state!
I don't hate the system so if you all do that I can probably draw every year and don't have to buy a point.
I think it's a brilliant idea!

 

[Roughwater]

View attachment 659560
From Montana's website on the stats for the Elk Combo tag.

With the max pref points capped at 3, and the rule that you go to 0 when you draw or don't apply for a year, what I can't figure out is how there were 4,138 apps with 3-2.2 PP's in 2023. If there were only 238 people who didn't draw the combo in 2022 with 2 points plus it doesn't show anyone with a fraction of a whole number in 2022, That would seem to correlate that those 238 people would go to 3 points in 2023. There was no one with 1 point in 2022 so no one could buy the point in the back half of the year and then at time of draw in 2023 to add 2 points to their tally, making it 3.

when analyzing the 0PP pool from 2022, there were 1523 who didn't draw in that pool, but theoretically the max they could go into 2023 with was 2, so they couldn't be part of the 3 PP apps in 2023.

So how would there have been 4,138 apps with 3-2.2 Pref Points in 2023???

What am I missing here? To me it seems important to understand this so as to try to get an idea what's going to happen here in 2024. Because right now, from this data, there are over 9000 folks who will have the max at 3-2.2 points (the people who did not draw in the .2-1.8 PP range in 2023) and there's only 12,750 combo tags available to people with pref points (75% of the quota to points people, 25% to those with no points). That'll leave only 3,750 tags for the 2 point pool, but judging from the 2022 to 2023 data, there are some magic jumps in points that seem to have occurred. The way this all stands, the draw odds at 2 points looks like it could drop to 37% for 2024 (3,750/10,259).....

I just wanted to thank you for putting together the stats. Pretty interesting! Nice to see the odds actually look like.

 

[Trap]

Although somewhat confusing, I think MT has a great system in place for folks that actually want to hunt in MT every other year and not just sit around collecting points. Apply or go back to zero.

I agree MT system is good. I hear people complaining about point creep in one thread and then complain about Mt in another. Montana has capped pref points at 3 and also makes you apply the year after buying a point. They are effectively flushing out high point holders and keeping people from just building ridiculous amounts of pp. Reserving 25 percent for people who dont want to play the points game is great. Requiring a draw of a general tag before applying for a special permit keeps those odds better as well. Allowing people to just apply for special permits has lead to seriouse point creep in other states. The only bullcrap part is outfiited clients being able to purchase 2 points. Montana is not complicated but its a little different in a good way.

 

[DanimalW]

If you apply as a group with people that have 0-1 pp that would bring down your average points so you wouldn’t draw, and probably allow some people in the party to accumulate 3 points.

 

[ez_willie]

If you apply as a group with people that have 0-1 pp that would bring down your average points so you wouldn’t draw, and probably allow some people in the party to accumulate 3 points.

True, it can work it some instances but remember your all donating close to $40 in fees just to apply, letting Montana sit on your $ for who knows how long till they mail you a ridiculous paper check and you all have to either buy a PP or not and since you apply you can’t buy that extra PP in the summer so your really not gaining much.

 

[dreamingWest]

I play the application game all over the west. I cringe every time I have a new guy ask me about Montana. It takes the longest to explain, but it is very likely the best system going.