OTC coming to an end in COLORADO???

[WV Mountaineer]

I am not blowing smoke man. I'm telling you economics will absolutely demand these results. You seem to think they don't apply in this situation.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

You might be right. It won't happen because people will just quit hunting when facing these prices.

 

[orionthehunter1]

No, its that you don't understand economics and your claiming there would only be 5000 non resident tags. I gave you their budget number of 121.5 million from license sales from last year. So lets say they do a hard cap of 80/20. Then lets say they decide to sell 100,000 elk tags statewide. That would be 80,000 for resident and 20,000 non resident. Then lets say they do the same for deer for easy math. Then you could also factor in bear, antelope, moose, sheep, and mountain goat. Now tell me why I'll have to pay 3 to 4 times what a non resident pays?

 

[orionthehunter1]

You might be right. It won't happen because people will just quit hunting when facing these prices.

Yeah nobody hunts New Mexico after they severely hard capped non-residents. BTW resident tags don't cost 3-4 times what a non resident tag costs. Again give me one state where that has happened.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

Under your numbers the 20,000 NR's will pay a total of $13,200,000 at $660/tag

Leaving roughly $108,000,000 for the residents to pay. That comes out to be roughly $1400 per resident elk tag at 80,000 tags.

If you think NT's are going to pay $4000-$5000 for a tag, to make the 3 to 4 times model fit the resident's financial approval, you have fell on your head. If you think CPW will continue to generate the revenue they do under the current model produces, with what you propose, you are more naive then I first assumed.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

Dude, what are you talking about. No state does that. I'm not saying there is. I'm saying CO is not New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming, or any other state. They are CO. They are set on making a certain amount of money. They ain't going to go backwards. Which is why they will never do what you propose? Because it wil make them generate less revenue. That is the issue.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

We are just firing back and forth now. Stop. Look at what has been said. It is all hypothetical. It is assuming things. What isn't an assumption is if you limit NR revenue, the resident will make up the difference. At current prices and, under what you propose, the hike to residents will be astronomical. Period. No way around it.

 

[tdhanses]

Fact is only popular units will reach the full 80% capacity of resident applications in a draw only hunt. Something that would be interesting is if they charged the same license fee for all in trophy units.

 

[tdhanses]

Under your numbers the 20,000 NR's will pay a total of $13,200,000 at $660/tag

Leaving roughly $108,000,000 for the residents to pay. That comes out to be roughly $1400 per resident elk tag at 80,000 tags.

If you think NT's are going to pay $4000-$5000 for a tag, to make the 3 to 4 times model fit the resident's financial approval, you have fell on your head. If you think CPW will continue to generate the revenue they do under the current model produces, with what you propose, you are more naive then I first assumed.

Thing to remember it is more likely that the NR fee would be $1400 before a resident fee. So in your model you need to adjust the NR fee to be 3 or 4 times or even 6 times higher then the resident especially if they limit it to 100k tags.

 

[orionthehunter1]

They could do a multitude of things such as selling the undersubscribed units by residents to non-residents. Also if they do cap licenses I will guarantee you non-residents won't be paying 660 for elk tags it will be more in line with other states and probably 900-1100. They could also tier the license costs by the quality of the units like new mexico or go regular and special like Wyoming to help your odds. Screenshot this post because I guarantee you we see OTC elk ended in Colorado in the next 5 years.

 

[tdhanses]

They could do a multitude of things such as selling the undersubscribed units by residents to non-residents. Also if they do cap licenses I will guarantee you non-residents won't be paying 660 for elk tags it will be more in line with other states and probably 900-1100. They could also tier the license costs by the quality of the units like new mexico or go regular and special like Wyoming to help your odds. Screenshot this post because I guarantee you we see OTC elk ended in Colorado in the next 5 years.

I agree it will come to an end but that doesn’t mean it’ll be difficult to get a tag. If CO jumps their prices many NR will stop coming but just like MT experienced, many will still pay it and it may take a little bit to get 100% NR participation but it’ll happen, this guy would still pay up. Truthfully I hope they keep the bear fee at $100 because I was paying over $1k when I got both bear and elk. Charge $900 for an elk and keep secondary tags cheap.

 

[orionthehunter1]

I agree guys will complain on forums, but tags will sell out. I also agree they need to keep bear tags cheap. The funniest part of this thread is the assumption that the non-resident price wouldn't increase if they decided to cap the tags.

 

[tdhanses]

I agree guys will complain on forums, but tags will sell out. I also agree they need to keep bear tags cheap. The funniest part of this thread is the assumption that the non-resident price wouldn't increase if they decided to cap the tags.

Ha, the NR fee will be the first thing to have a significant price increase, only way to get around it is move to CO, which I’ll do someday.

 

[orionthehunter1]

You can already see that CPW is already planning for ending OTC elk. This year they are implementing non-refundable licenses required for applying, they raised the cost of the app fee, they raised the cost of points for the big 3 (moose,sheep, and goat) they will do it for the other species as well. The next step will be a raise in resident fees, after that will be a raise in non-resident fees. I can also see fishing licenses increasing and possibility the habitat stamp as well. After the prices are adjusted they will then determine the number of tags they need to sell to hit their budget.

 

[tdhanses]

I thought they already were raising resident fees for 2019?

Agree they will determine how many they need to sell, easy to just put out a number of tags to the otc unit as draw as they are not managed the same currently as the le units, then over time they can adjust as needed.

 

[sneaky]

Seems to be the price during rebate season for the basic trail version here in Kansas on the Razor.

Who buys a basic trail version? Lol

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[sneaky]

Look at other states that have limited non-residents, no resident pays three or four times a nonresident license fee

You're right, in MT NR pay 25x the resident rate

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[sneaky]

Under your numbers the 20,000 NR's will pay a total of $13,200,000 at $660/tag

Leaving roughly $108,000,000 for the residents to pay. That comes out to be roughly $1400 per resident elk tag at 80,000 tags.

If you think NT's are going to pay $4000-$5000 for a tag, to make the 3 to 4 times model fit the resident's financial approval, you have fell on your head. If you think CPW will continue to generate the revenue they do under the current model produces, with what you propose, you are more naive then I first assumed.

You just don't get it. The residents won't be picking up the slack, the NR licenses will sky rocket, just like in MT. Dude, get a clue.

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[tdhanses]

Who buys a basic trail version? Lol

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Actually it is far more appealing then their other options for a hunting rig but I also only have a basic atv that does just fine.

 

[sneaky]

Actually it is far more appealing then their other options for a hunting rig but I also only have a basic atv that does just fine.

All the ones I see on trailers around here are the 20k plus rigs. The trail version is nice for width restricted trails, but most people ignore trail regs anyways.

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