NM now requires license purchase for draw - impact?

3darcher2

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What do you all think the impact will be, if any, of the new requirement that you must have a hunting license this year to be in the draw for any big game draw tags? For residents, probably zero impact. For NR, it's an extra $65 for what amounts to a lottery ticket in a lot of units for elk. Unlike other western states that require the purchase to even apply, there is no preference or bonus point. The refund my if not successful option is no longer available for those who weren't aware.

I'm sure we all have opinions on whether this is a good decision or the best way to raise money, but I am more interested in the impact. Do you think there will be a significant reduction in applicants, meaning better odds, or not much difference? My gut is a lot of guys would throw $13 in as a Hail Mary looking for the Gila or 34. At $78, do some of those guys drop off altogether, do they shift their choices, or are they mostly still all in. I realize a for a lot of the Rokslide users, this would be a non-issue, but how many casual guys are taking a shot at $13 that won't do it at 6X the price?

Seems like elk and deer could be the most stable. NM has more NR elk apps than anything, but there are a decent number of other species. There were 12200 applicants for elk and just over 1000 NR pool tags. 2400 put in for 120 NR Antelope tags. 1700 put in for 5 bighorn tags. 6000 mulie hopefuls tried for 1300 tags. Are there still 1700 sheep applicants for 5 tags at $78 a shot? Do those people all try for elk? Do some species odds get tougher because as long as you are buying the license, do you throw in for deer, antelope or bighorn even though you are after elk?

It could be an interesting dynamic. The NR pool will be the biggest swing with only 6% of the licenses and all NR. The outfitter pool has more tags and both resident and NR. Could be a crazy year.
 

TheCougar

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I think the impact will be more indirect... for example, with the WY and NM fee increase, it won’t stop me applying in those states, but I will be dropping ID from my application strategy for years that I am not using ID as a backup option. I’m sure there will be some guys who don’t apply this year due to the $65, but with the economy slowing down and draw/tag prices increasing, I think draw applicants have peaked for western states as a whole.


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Trial153

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Idaho is is even more expensive and you dont seeing it slowing down applications in on big three draws.
The money is going to be a non issue for a lot of people.

The only thing that will truly effect odds at this point, not only in NM but across the west is a muti state hard cap on applications for the individual. That isnt happening in my lifetime
 

Fitzwho

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I live just an hour from public land quail hunting in NM, so I always pay for the license no matter what. Though I have applied 3 years in a row and drawn one tag per year (one each of mule deer, elk, and antelope). So essentially its no difference for me or likely anybody that lives as close as I do. However, I'm not sure $65 is going to keep anybody from applying for Gila elk, or any others, if that is what you want to do.
 

KHNC

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They need to take away LO tags , or at least prohibit them from being sold as unit wide. That is the only thing that will open up NM to more people . Biggest money scam by ranchers in history.
 

jspradley

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I've said it before, state game agencies need all the cash they can get, if an extra $65 is gonna make or break you then you either probably shouldn't be hunting or you should rearrange some priorities to fit into that. Plenty of guys will drop more than that on beer in a week...
 

tlowell02

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I think there will be a slight downturn in NR applicants from last year's record high. Significant though? No.

I think many people are sick of throwing money in the lease system and instead are putting that money toward public land hunts and still coming out ahead.
 
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3darcher2

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Thanks for some well thought responses.

Specifically, I wasn’t asking what “you” would do, or even think, about $65. That’s a separate discussion. It clearly has to have some impact, whether that’s measurable or not is a different story. There is a tendency for us to all look at ourselves as the norm.

Unless you are under a rock, almost every DIY blog and website has always advocated to put in for NM as a long shot specifically because it was only $13 years per species. The fact that it’s now $78 has to have SOME impact. Some of you seem believe that for the general population, there’s no amount of fees that will make a change. Whether it’s a guy from CO or UT who figures if they get lucky and draw they are close by or someone who has NM 6th or 8th on their list of states, someone’s gonna drop out. Likewise, maybe the deer apps will go up as elk applicants might add a deer app as long as they are spending for a license.

Your opinion of the policy change aside, will there be a change in odds? If not, how much do you think it would take to make a change like NM, where you get no points, nothing, for your license purchase. What if it was $100? $150? $300? Does everyone have unlimited funds?
 

rfurman24

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I will admit I know the least about the ins and outs of NM but from what I do know it may affect my strategy. I do not apply for ID unless I know if I fail to draw I will be picking up a leftover/otc tag. NM really has nothing to offer me personally outside of draw tags.
 
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TheCougar

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Thanks for some well thought responses.

Specifically, I wasn’t asking what “you” would do, or even think, about $65. That’s a separate discussion. It clearly has to have some impact, whether that’s measurable or not is a different story. There is a tendency for us to all look at ourselves as the norm.

Unless you are under a rock, almost every DIY blog and website has always advocated to put in for NM as a long shot specifically because it was only $13 years per species. The fact that it’s now $78 has to have SOME impact. Some of you seem believe that for the general population, there’s no amount of fees that will make a change. Whether it’s a guy from CO or UT who figures if they get lucky and draw they are close by or someone who has NM 6th or 8th on their list of states, someone’s gonna drop out. Likewise, maybe the deer apps will go up as elk applicants might add a deer app as long as they are spending for a license.

Your opinion of the policy change aside, will there be a change in odds? If not, how much do you think it would take to make a change like NM, where you get no points, nothing, for your license purchase. What if it was $100? $150? $300? Does everyone have unlimited funds?
That’s tough to answer because it differs for everyone. I stick with my previous statement that I think, on a macro scale, we are at the crest for NR applications in all states. The internet is saturated with content and information, the market looks like it is peaking, and costs for playing the draw game increase every year. On a micro scale, there might be changes within individual states and species as people start to prioritize states with a little more scrutiny. I group NM in both those - I don’t see how NM can keep growing based on the macro side and I do think the non refundable fee will cause a decrease in apps. What remains to be see is how appreciable it is (I think it will be a drop in the bucket, with little change to odds). I would have less price sensitivity to NM because it is the closest western state, but if UT or NV jacked their prices, then those would be at the bottom of my list. I know people hate “depends” answers, so I will say $212.34 is when it starts to affect draw odds!
 

Thunder head

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Probably be a small reduction in the people that apply.

I know it pisses me off. I already don't apply in the other states that have this stupid rule. Its nothing but a way to scam money. I wasn't planning on coming out west this year. Unless I drew a N.M. tag. I might pass on it now.
 

Trial153

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I will admit I know the least about the ins and outs of NM but from what I do know it may affect my strategy. I do not apply for ID unless I know if I fail to draw I will be picking up a leftover/otc tag. NM really has nothing to offer me personally outside of draw tags.
I agree with this. I question my sanity every year I put a sheep application in and don’t use my Idaho hunting license. Wtf am I thinking
 

rfurman24

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I have been rethinking my sheep plan. I am contemplating taking the money I would spend on things like ID license or WY points and just buying sheep raffle tags.
 

Trial153

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I have been rethinking my sheep plan. I am contemplating taking the money I would spend on things like ID license or WY points and just buying sheep raffle tags.
WY for sure. Even with the points I have I am throwing good money after bad. Idaho is getting harder and harder especially now that I have better understanding of how the non resident cap really effects the draw. I think we are drawing dead more often then we think.
I almost there are better non sheep gambles that maybe turn into a sheep hunt. I am on the cusp of booking a trip at least I can guarantee a return on the money,
 
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dmc

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I don't think it's going to have a big impact. But if it does would the impact be greater in the NR pool or the outfitter pool? I'd guess NR but not too sure.
 

Dos Perros

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So I've only been applying to western hunts for 4 years now (this year will be my 5th). I apply in WY, AZ, MT, and CO. I would have applied in NM the last few years but I didn't realize the license fee was optional. My wife and I make a good living and we have our priorities in order, but in this particular instance I just didn't justify spending the money on some pretty remote odds. You could definitely argue I'm already doing that in some other states, but I can only go on so many hunts. I recently found out we didn't have to pay for license in NM, so I was definitely going to apply in NM this year. Then I see this thread.

My point being, yes the license fee kept me out of the pool when I believed that was the case, so I'd have to believe the number of applicants will be impacted this year.
 
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