Official Montana 2022 draw thread!

[j_volt]

The below showed up this morning. I applied for the deer combo with no LE unit. I refuse to speculate on what it means as my drawing anxiety can't handle it.

 

[Paul B]

The below showed up this morning. I applied for the deer combo with no LE unit. I refuse to speculate on what it means as my drawing anxiety can't handle it.

View attachment 400510

Mine was like that yesterday afternoon when I checked and I did a elk deer combo

 

[kirk.ringey]

I called them yesterday so I would stop wondering, lady basically said chill out and give them until the end of the week

 

[Boone-In-Wall]

I called them yesterday so I would stop wondering, lady basically said chill out and give them until the end of the week

lol, but we need to know!

 

[Mdfowlman2]

They will not draw until Thursday, around 9am mountain time your account will say drawing under way.

 

[Mdfowlman2]

Everyone with 3 points take a chill pill, you are drawing your tag with 3 points. Folks with 2 points, your tag isn’t guaranteed but you have good odds. 1 point people, sorry but your not drawing, the math shows you will not draw unless you get a released tag. 0 point holders you have a better chance than the one point holder but it’s not great odds overall.

 

[BRTreedogs]

Everyone with 3 points take a chill pill, you are drawing your tag with 3 points. Folks with 2 points, your tag isn’t guaranteed but you have good odds. 1 point people, sorry but your not drawing, the math shows you will not draw unless you get a released tag. 0 point holders you have a better chance than the one point holder but it’s not great odds overall.

But what about a 2.5 average? It wouldn't let me buy a point for her to average us to 3 for some reason.
I better refresh every 5 min

 

[Mdfowlman2]

But what about a 2.5 average? It wouldn't let me buy a point for her to average us to 3 for some reason.
I better refresh every 5 min

You should draw. The first 75% of tags is a true preference point system, the people
With the most points will draw first.
The final 25% of tags go to people with zero points, makes no sense but that’s Montana for ya.
They will likely draw Thursday, they’ve drawn on the 14th the last two years

 

[j_volt]

Everyone with 3 points take a chill pill, you are drawing your tag with 3 points. Folks with 2 points, your tag isn’t guaranteed but you have good odds. 1 point people, sorry but your not drawing, the math shows you will not draw unless you get a released tag. 0 point holders you have a better chance than the one point holder but it’s not great odds overall.

Please get out of here with your logical thinking. This thread is for panic and complaining

 

[Usi05]

Hoping I’m good with two points since I talked myself out of buying a 3rd. Seems silly now!


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[cfdjay]

My Bro-Science tells me I will not draw with one point but many people with zero will.

 

[Mdfowlman2]

My Bro-Science tells me I will not draw with one point but many people with zero will.

What is Bro-science?

 

[Mdfowlman2]

Hoping I’m good with two points since I talked myself out of buying a 3rd. Seems silly now!


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Two is a stressful place to be this year with the ability for outfitted hunters to buy two points.
My dad has two points and in normal years this was a guaranteed tag but now we are a little worried.
I drew last year and opted not to buy the point for the draw this year so I had a chance to draw.
Going to be an interesting Thursday, I doubt I get any work done

 

[cfdjay]

What is Bro-science?

Lol. It's a term used predominantly in the bodybuilding and powerlifting community using anecdotal evidence or advice as fact without any facts or evidence to back it up.

Basically saying I have no idea what I'm talking about but this is what I think.

 

[Usi05]

Two is a stressful place to be this year with the ability for outfitted hunters to buy two points.
My dad has two points and in normal years this was a guaranteed tag but now we are a little worried.
I drew last year and opted not to buy the point for the draw this year so I had a chance to draw.
Going to be an interesting Thursday, I doubt I get any work done

I let prior years draw odds factor in too much.


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[Peregrine1]

Gen Elk combo, 0 pts, party of 2


Successful



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[cfdjay]

Two is a stressful place to be this year with the ability for outfitted hunters to buy two points.
My dad has two points and in normal years this was a guaranteed tag but now we are a little worried.
I drew last year and opted not to buy the point for the draw this year so I had a chance to draw.
Going to be an interesting Thursday, I doubt I get any work done

Man I struggled with whether to get a point or not. I decided to for 2 reasons.

1) The Future
2) With all the transparent info out there now I'd be surprised if most people didn't do what you did and apply with zero points. Especially parties. Better chance and cheaper? Why not? '

In short I think more people with zero will draw than 1 point however no way is it the same percentage as last year..... BRO SCIENCE lol

 

[Roughwater]

You folks with 2.5 and even 2 points are in probably in the 90%+ chance range of drawing so I wouldn't be too worried. Now me with 1 point yea, I'm worried but maybe I still have 10% chance. Most other types of drawings I'm in my chances of winning are infinitely smaller. One in a million you say, then I have a chance!

 

[Scrappy]

Hoping I’m good with two points since I talked myself out of buying a 3rd. Seems silly now!


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Hate to break it to you but not buying a point was a real bonehead move if you really wanto hunt this year.

 

[Sanchez]

I purchased a preference point so I have a total of one. I applied for the big game combo with my target on next year, or even the year after.

I am planning this year's hunts on the assumption I will not draw Montana so it would actually be a bit distressing with hunt re scheduling if I did.