Are we in a hunting bubble?

[TheCougar]

Disclaimer: this question is not intended to sport bitch about NR costs, tag allocations, hunting opportunity, or general NR entitlement . That’s for you, Buzz!

I’ve been reading a lot recently about increases in tags fees and decreases in quotas for NR. It got me thinking about how this situation may be artificially stimulated by a booming economy and the current “fad” of western hunting. Many states seem to be stacking their chips in the NR economy - namely packing more and more revenue into a shrinking segment of the hunting population. I also am fully aware of the engine of capitalism: supply and demand, in addition to the inability of legislatures to plan beyond their collective noses. Much in the same way nearly every state (except for NM and ID - god bless you) have created various Ponzi schemes with point structures. Sounds great for revenue generation in the short term, but ultimately crushes Hunter recruitment - and therefore long term revenue - by relegating the youngest hunters to the worst units during the peak of their health and formative period- whether resident or nonresident.

So are we in an artificially created bubble? Does it pop when the economy hits the next recession or when western hunting is no longer the #HotThing? If so, what does it look like when an increasingly small group who fund an increasingly larger portion of budgets, no longer do so? Do we ever actually get there? Is there ever an impetus for states to reverse their thinking on funding budgets and tag allocations? Is there ever a point when a state recognizes a train wreck and abandons a point structure to benefit the new rather than the established?

Just offseason musings...

 

[Djacker]

I have been wondering this for a few years. I think there is a breaking point, I just don't know when or how it will happen.

 

[*zap*]

I think outdoor activities/sports trend according to popularity on social media. For a while now it has seemed to me that the trend is a hero picture with a bow.

 

[Dos Perros]

The bottleneck of the system is how many animals there are, not how many hunters there are. You'd have to see a large exit of hunters (as in there aren't enough hunters to kill all the animals) from hunting before long term revenue was impacted.

 

[Larry Bartlett]

If you look at each western (and northern) states' license purchases, hunting populations are growing not shrinking.

There are a lot of political reasons NR promos and allocations go up state to state. In Alaska the Guide Association regularly advocates for NR increases so the guide industry continues to thrive. They submit these requests to the BOG and if unchallenged they get adopted. That's a simplification of the process but it happens in all states.

 

[Molon Labe]

I think the bubble popped back in the 80s. The percentage of people that hunt in this country is probably half of what it was in the 1950s.

Its only getting worse with the heaviest portion of the hunters aging out over the next 10-20 years.

 

[ChrisS]

The biggest shift making western hunting a "fad" is that going is now much more attainable to anyone with a computer.

I wanted to hunt out west from the first time I picked up a field and stream magazine when I was in my teens and saw elk country in color glossy photographs, but the only way a kid like me could do something like that was go through a guide for many dollars - which I did not have.

Now, all it takes is to log on, spend a few days deciphering the application systems, a few bucks for the draw, and a vehicle - all of which everyone has. There might be a slight drop-off in overall numbers, but I'd wager that this is the new normal.

 

[FLAK]

Yep, let the economy falter and see if the app#'s don't fall dramatically.
Most people will only pay outrageous NR fees when the economy is booming.
And I will have no sympathy for those states that screw the NR during good times.

 

[Trial153]

I been bowhunting since I was 14, here i am 29 years later and I have yet to see any bubble break. Lucky enough that I been from the the sub artic to mexico and lot of places in between. Betting on prices coming down or opportunity increasing is a losing wager. Tags arent getting more plentiful comparied to our population and prices are never coming down. I honestly see less people having the same opportunities we had unless they are very well off. We have montized an paid for exclusivity to the point of no going back. The ship has sailed.

 

[Danny Hoey]

Less and less hunting licenses are getting bought nationwide but certain states are overcrowded. So which states are less crowded now? Maybe opportunities will arise from places that may be overlooked.

 

[Shupe88]

I’m afraid it’s like anything else with the prices. It only goes up and never goes back down. Might not go up again for a few years but I highly doubt they will ever drop. Hell I can’t afford to go out west and hunt with the way prices are now. Definitely can’t go anytime in the near future if they keep going up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Wrench]

I think a lot of it is perception. I hunt Wa and ID and the ID guys complain about crowding. When you pull up to a trailhead and see 5 trucks that is crowded in the Joe and empty in the Clockum.

Cities are BOOMING right now. I was in Boise and Caldwell visiting family and didn't recognize it. Cda is now huge and doesn't stop until the border.

Population is simply increasing and so will the hunting pressure. If 15% of people hunt.....and you double the population, so does your hunter base.

It's a dangerous thing to price the next generation out of this game. Americans are one of few countries where average citizens can be well practiced marksmen because of hunting. We don't want to lose that.

 

[NDGuy]

Maybe if Bernie Sanders gets elected he will give everyone a free elk tag. Or maybe he will take preference points from the top holders to give to the 23 year old kids with underwater basket weaving degrees.

 

[805Bowhunter]

I think a big elephant in the room is California and the cost of living/its impact on the rest of the country. Increasingly, especially as hunting opportunities continue to go away inside California, California hunters are leaving the state to hunt...elk, deer, etc. In a state where a crappy condo sandwiched in between a liquor store and a freeway onramp costs $700k...tag prices jumping a couple hundred bucks to people that are living in a state that is expensive already is going to not cause as much feather ruffling as other states, especially when this is perceived as a "vacation." I remember hearing a podcast somewhere with one of the GoHunt guys and he was saying that something like 40% of their entire subscription base was from California. In a population of close to 35 million, there are a lot of hunters (even if it doesnt seem like it) who can easily leave California and be in a "Western" state in a few hours.

California money is continuing to be a bigger presence on out of state hunts period. In a state where gas is $4.50 a gallon and prices are crazy high for everything, paying $1200 for a Wyoming sp. draw doesnt seem like a big deal when you realize that your gas, lodging etc will be way cheaper than your home state. I am not saying this is my perspective, but I know a lot of people that talk this way about out of state hunting. It is like a lot of the beach communities near where I live...the demand is so high for the property that people can no longer afford rent, and instead of a house going empty, there are 75 people who make good money waiting in line to rent the house for the new price. I think the same thing is happening with elk hunting across western states. As prices go up, people will certainly be waiting in line to pay them...look at all the western states...prices go up yet it has never been harder to get an elk tag across the board. I just dont see this changing anytime soon.

As prices go up, people will just be priced out of the market by those who can pay more. It is a super unfortunate reality about the differing financial situations across the country as well as the basic laws of supply and demand. While hunter recruitment is very important, this is one of the downsides. People like Joe Rogan, who do an incredible amount for hunting and conservation, have also inspired people on the higher end of the economic spectrum to pick up a bow and go for it. Same with a lot of the content on youtube. Im not bagging on it, I just feel like it has an overall impact on tags and who is able to afford them. I have no solution, I just know that elk hunting across the west is very different than it was 10 years ago and I think is going to be even more different 10 years from now. I dont know how to keep it affordable for everyone when there is a limited supply and a high demand. Even in an economic downturn, people who make a lot will still be able to afford the tags, whereas people busting their asses in the middle/bottom will have to be more selective on when/where they can hunt.

 

[Wrench]

I have 6 more years of obligation and then I'll just take up residence in the state I want to hunt.

 

[WCB]

Montana did it when the economy was in the crapper. Got rid of guaranteed outfitter tags and jacked up prices. For the small amount of licenses available to the large amount of people that want to hunt out west there will be enough people to sell the tags if they are at all desirable. There are tags even now with the demand so high that don't sell out because there just isn't the interest in those units or hunts.

I hate the costs of hunting out west now...but I still do it because I love it. If the economy totally crashes things may change as far as available tags being sold. Prices won't drop. but as long as things are at least ok in the economy nothing will change. I live in MN and if you saw the number of $10,000-$30,000 fish house guys are pulling around with $60,000 vehicles and $10,000 ATVs...$1000 for a tag is the least of peoples worries.

 

[Buck1]

I've hunted NR in Idaho around 30 years and if I compare the cost difference in my tags vs say a new truck or a house or anything I would have to say we have nothing to complain about.

 

[5MilesBack]

I remember back in 2008 and 2009 wondering if that economic drop from the financial crisis would cause anyone to stay home instead of hunting. Nope.....it sure didn't. I believe that hunters are going to hunt no matter what, and they're all hunting the western states.

 

[Rob5589]

I think a big elephant in the room is California and the cost of living/its impact on the rest of the country. Increasingly, especially as hunting opportunities continue to go away inside California, California hunters are leaving the state to hunt...elk, deer, etc. In a state where a crappy condo sandwiched in between a liquor store and a freeway onramp costs $700k...tag prices jumping a couple hundred bucks to people that are living in a state that is expensive already is going to not cause as much feather ruffling as other states, especially when this is perceived as a "vacation." I remember hearing a podcast somewhere with one of the GoHunt guys and he was saying that something like 40% of their entire subscription base was from California. In a population of close to 35 million, there are a lot of hunters (even if it doesnt seem like it) who can easily leave California and be in a "Western" state in a few hours.

California money is continuing to be a bigger presence on out of state hunts period. In a state where gas is $4.50 a gallon and prices are crazy high for everything, paying $1200 for a Wyoming sp. draw doesnt seem like a big deal when you realize that your gas, lodging etc will be way cheaper than your home state. I am not saying this is my perspective, but I know a lot of people that talk this way about out of state hunting. It is like a lot of the beach communities near where I live...the demand is so high for the property that people can no longer afford rent, and instead of a house going empty, there are 75 people who make good money waiting in line to rent the house for the new price. I think the same thing is happening with elk hunting across western states. As prices go up, people will certainly be waiting in line to pay them...look at all the western states...prices go up yet it has never been harder to get an elk tag across the board. I just dont see this changing anytime soon.

As prices go up, people will just be priced out of the market by those who can pay more. It is a super unfortunate reality about the differing financial situations across the country as well as the basic laws of supply and demand. While hunter recruitment is very important, this is one of the downsides. People like Joe Rogan, who do an incredible amount for hunting and conservation, have also inspired people on the higher end of the economic spectrum to pick up a bow and go for it. Same with a lot of the content on youtube. Im not bagging on it, I just feel like it has an overall impact on tags and who is able to afford them. I have no solution, I just know that elk hunting across the west is very different than it was 10 years ago and I think is going to be even more different 10 years from now. I dont know how to keep it affordable for everyone when there is a limited supply and a high demand. Even in an economic downturn, people who make a lot will still be able to afford the tags, whereas people busting their asses in the middle/bottom will have to be more selective on when/where they can hunt.

Well, not everyone in CA is "rich" or lives on the beach. I would venture to say that most hunters live in smaller, more rural areas, not big cities where prices are sky high. The median income here is about 75k, the rest of the country is about 62K. You cannot base everything about CA on the coastal areas of LA and SF.
Oh, and gas is only 3.05 here in Sacramento

 

[Diesel]

Just some things to consider. Since I have been on the planet, the population of the U.S has more than doubled. Less open land, more roads, more people.

Something else. The gear available to hunt big country has changed dramatically allowing folks to be more comfortable, safe and reach places on their own for longer periods than ever before. We can all be Jim Bridger. Therefore more folks have the ability to forego the horses, guides and wall tent setups of the old days to do the big adventure on their own terms.

Then there is the hype of podcasts and the internet exciting guys about new bows, rifles, tents, technical clothes and rigs that need somewhere to put it to use. We have created desire in the hearts of many to go west. The western states are the places that you can still get back in and "feel" that primal urge albeit with modern amenities. The East just doesn't have that big adventure sense of wide open endless country.

All here have the desire to hunt big country... that's a major factor in why we are on this site right now.

So I highly doubt there will be a time those tags are not sold.